NOPE: Trump-Backed Funding Bill Fails House Vote As 38 Republicans Say 'No'

Update (1752ET): The first vote to kick the can down the road until 2027 has failed the House, by a vote of 174-235-1, with 38 Republicans voting 'no'.

The bill required 2/3 of the vote under a fast-track method, yet didn't even clear a simple majority.

Polymarket odds of a shutdown have spiked to 76% as of this writing

That’s 38 Republicans voting to express no confidence in Mike Johnson as Speaker of the House. A stunning rebuke for a guy who won unanimous support in conference just weeks ago. What a turnaround. He’s in very big trouble. https://t.co/bcOHiNWCTn

— Matthew Boyle (@mboyle1) December 20, 2024

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Update (1752ET): In what comes as a surprise to nobody, Democrats want their pork - and have said "Hell no" to the massively reduced spending package that Mike Johnson rolled out after conferring with the Trump team.

"The Musk-Johnson proposal is not serious. It’s laughable. Extreme MAGA Republicans are driving us to a government shutdown," House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told reporters as he walked into a closed-door caucus meeting Thursday afternoon.

In short, it's doomed.

"I’m not simply a no. I’m a hell no," Jeffries then said at the closed-door meeting, Politico reports, citing three people familiar with the meeting.

More via Politico:

Other Democratic lawmakers also expressed doubts about the legislation, which Republican leaders were teeing up for a vote Thursday evening. It would suspend the debt ceiling through early 2027, fund the government through March, and include billions in disaster relief funds, a top Democratic priority.

The vote on the bill is scheduled to come up via a process called suspension, which means it needs to meet a two-thirds vote threshold to pass. If Democrats are roundly against it, it will fail on the floor — leaving Congress without an obvious solution to avoid a shutdown.

“This was done on short notice,” said Rep. Richard Neal (D-Mass.), the top Democrat on the Ways and Means Committee, who said he was opposed. “We reached an agreement on a bipartisan basis between the respective leadership and the membership of both parties, only to have an interruption take place and then a veto occurs after the agreement has been rendered and reached.”

President-elect Donald Trump and Elon Musk worked to spike the original deal on Wednesday, sending the House careening down an alternate path with a deadline looming.

“Elon Musk is not my constituent. My constituents are hard-working people who work very hard every day for every dime they have, and I'm sure as hell not bailing out on them in the final week,” said Rep. Ann McLane Kuster (D-N.H.), chair of the centrist New Democrat Coalition.

Top Democrats weren’t involved in the drafting of the legislation, and the unveiling caught senior lawmakers by surprise.

“All I know is it was just reported by the press. We have not been involved in anything that they have done,” said Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), the top Appropriations Committee Democrat.

Republicans argue the burden is now on Democrats to justify any opposition to a continuing resolution — “CR” for short — that averts a government shutdown and also prevents the U.S. from defaulting on its more than $36 trillion in debt next year.

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Update (1350ET): Republican lawmakers have reportedly struck a new spending deal to keep the lights on in Washington until at least Jan. 30, 2027, according to Politico, citing two GOP lawmakers meeting in Speaker Mike Johnson's office Thursday afternoon.

"There is an agreement," said Rep. Stephanie Bice (R-OK). "The plan is to put a bill on the floor that we think is a reasonable step forward."

🚨 BREAKING: SPENDING DEAL RELEASED

It moves the debt ceiling out to Jan. 30, 2027. pic.twitter.com/gYjbSzfoTm

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) December 19, 2024

The new package is just 116 pages, down from 1,547 in the original draft.

Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK), who was also in Johnson's office, didn't say whether congressional Democrats or the White House had agreed to it, however Bloomberg reports that it has Trump's blessing.

Late Wednesday afternoon, President-elect Trump demanded Johnson abandon the previous revision he'd worked out with Democratic congressional leaders.

Meanwhile, Trump is now gunning for... Chip Roy?

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'With Friday's government shutdown looming - and odds spiking after everyone figured out that the 1,547-page Continuing Resolution (CR) was full of Orwellian bullshit and other malarkey, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has gone to Donald Trumps team with hat in hand.

The new plan will be a federal funding stopgap plan that includes disaster aid, pushing off the debt limit fight for two years, and a one-year farm bill extension, Politico reports, citing Republicans familiar with the discussions.

No word on how close this comes to a "clean" bill, or how much of the aforementioned bullshit is gone - such as funding the Global Engagement Center, shielding the Jan. 6 committee from subpoenas, and funding new biolabs, but we guess we'll find out.

Also unknown is whether Democrats will support the plan.

But Trump had made an 11th hour public demand that any stopgap bill should deal with the debt limit. Trump's team is pushing for at least a commitment to lift the debt limit before Jan. 20.

The level of disaster aid and whether it’s completely paid for is still unclear. The package would also likely include some additional economic aid for farmers, amid threats from rural Republicans to oppose any stopgap that doesn’t include the funding. -Politico

In a closed door meeting on Thursday, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) told Democratic lawmakers: "Let us never negotiate out of fear. But let us never fear to negotiate," citing JFK.

Polymarkets odds of a government shutdown went from 15% yesterday to 49% this morning.

According to Punchbowl News, here's what happened, and what's next;

At some point today, House Republicans and Democrats will likely have separate party meetings to chart their path forward. Democrats have announced their meeting for 9 a.m. We’ll talk more about them below.

But make no mistake — this is Johnson and Trump’s mess to solve. And we’re inching toward a shutdown as government funding runs out at midnight Friday.

Johnson was mostly MIA Wednesday, holed up in his Capitol office for hours without showing his face. Even the House GOP leadership team felt like they were being kept in the dark about what was happening.

Late in the evening, Johnson met with Vance, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, Reps. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), Chip Roy (R-Texas) and Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.), Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) and Rules Committee Chair Michael Burgess (R-Texas). Jordan and Roy are conservative hardliners. Diaz-Balart is a senior appropriator.

As Scalise left around 10 p.m., he told reporters “We’re not there yet” when asked whether the debt-limit boost would be part of any new government-funding plan. “A lot of things have come up,” Scalise added.

A somewhat obvious play may be a funding bill with a two-year debt-limit extension. Why? Because Trump supports increasing the debt limit now. Given how volatile Trump was during his first term, there’s no guarantee he’ll do this again. (For what it’s worth, Biden administration officials estimate the debt limit won’t be reached until sometime next summer. GOP leaders were planning to handle it in a reconciliation bill).

Trump is giving Johnson cover for the time being. It’s limited, however. Because Trump, once again, has put his party in a bind. There are probably dozens of Republicans who have never voted for raising the debt ceiling. Now Trump is forcing them to do so.

Check back for updates.