Labor Market Miasma: Jobless Claims Best In 10 Months, ADP Worst In 4 Months
Labor Market Miasma: Jobless Claims Best In 10 Months, ADP Worst In 4 Months
Jobs, jobs, jobs...
ADP's employment report showed a disappointing addition of just 122k jobs in December (worse than the +140k exp) - its lowest since August...
Source: Bloomberg
Only 3 of the 23 forecasters were lower...
Source: Bloomberg
Manufacturing saw the biggest drop in jobs (the 7th monthly decline in manufacturing jobs in the last 8 months)...
...as small- and mid-sized firms cut employees (which is odd since NFIB Small Business sentiment literally exploded higher after Trump's election).
The West was the biggest driver of job gains by region.
It seems the labor market ''downshifted'' right after Trump was elected?
"The labor market downshifted to a more modest pace of growth in the final month of 2024, with a slowdown in both hiring and pay gains," said Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP.
"Health care stood out in the second half of the year, creating more jobs than any other sector. "
As a reminder, yesterday JOLTS had the biggest two month jump in professional/business service job openings on record and now this?
The ADP report showed wage growth cooled further.
Workers who changed jobs saw a 7.1% increase in pay, while those who stayed put saw a 4.6% gain, the slowest since mid-2021.
ADP looks even more ridiculous as initial jobless claims plunged to 201k last week - the lowest since Feb 2024...
Source: Bloomberg
Notably the unadjusted claims soared near one year highs.
Continuing claims ticked up but remain below the 1.9mm Maginot Line...
Source: Bloomberg
Are we really back in baffle 'em with bullshit macro data mode?
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